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ECRI: Most recent News.

Oslo
ECRI principals will be in Oslo to meet with professional members on June 4, 2012.
London
ECRI principals will be in London to meet with professional members on May 23, 2012.
WLI Falls
A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week, while the annualized growth rate improved modestly, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 124.5 in the week ended May 11 from an unrevised 125.4 the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate rose to 0.4 perce...
Can the Fed Save the Day?
The optimism about the U.S. economy prevalent less than two months ago has given way to a sense of foreboding.Almost on cue, the debate is returning to the potential for more quantitative easing by major central banks as a way of shoring things up. But is this realistic?ECRI’s latest analysis, based on our array of cyclical indexes of growth and inflation, shows just how effective such actions...
Rising GDP Doesn't Rule Out Recession
Yes, U.S. GDP is still rising, according to the latest reports. But that doesn’t mean we’ve dodged a new recession.Sound surprising? What most people don’t understand is that recessions often begin when gross domestic product is still showing positive growth.Four of the past six recessions started during a quarter when GDP was growing, as did 72% of all recessions in the past 94 years[1].How ca...
WLI Growth Ticks Down
A measure of future U.S. economic growth improved last week, but the annualized growth rate remained in negative territory after a downward revision to the previous week, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 125.4 in the week ended May 4 from 124.6 the previous week. That w...
Free Market Economies Have Business Cycles
Many think recessions are some sort of "failure," and, if policy makers just did the "right thing," they could stave off recession indefinitely, meaning they could repeal the business cycle.
Is there really no recession?
Achuthan and Blodget discuss ECRI's call for recession to begin by mid 2012, and how it typically takes about six months after a recession begins before you see a negative GDP print in the rear-view mirror.
Revoking Recession: 48th Time's the Charm?
For the last three months, year-over-year growth in real personal income has stayed lower than it was at the beginning of each of the last ten recessions. In other words, this is what personal income growth typically looks like early in a recession.Has personal income growth ever remained this low for three months without the economy going into recession? The answer is no.The chart depicts real...
Recession Update
For the past three months, year-over-year real personal income growth has stayed lower than it was at the start of each of the last ten recessions.
Is there really no recession?
Achuthan and Blodget discuss ECRI's call for recession to begin by mid 2012, and how it typically takes about six months after a recession begins before you see a negative GDP print in the rear-view mirror.
Business Cycle Can't Be Repealed
Achuthan and Costello discuss how recessions are part and parcel of free-market economies.
Update to Feb Interview
Achuthan discusses ECRI's call for recession to begin by mid 2012, and how it typically takes about half a year after a recession begins before a negative real-time GDP print is released.Note: Achuthan discusses the recessionary decline in jobs and income growth. To clarify, in the past 60 years we haven’t seen an economic slowdown where year-over-year jobs growth has dropped this low without r...
ECRI Interviews
ECRI co-founder, Lakshman Achuthan, will be interviewed today about the cyclical outlook at the following times: 6:10 AM – CNBC9:00 AM – CNN12:00 PM – Bloomberg
WLI Growth Slips
A measure of future U.S. economic growth improved last week, but the annualized growth rate fell to zero, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 124.7 in the week ended April 27 from 124.0 the previous week. That was originally reported as 124.1. The index's annualized gro...
U.S. FIG Ticks Down
U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in April, as the U.S. future inflation gauge slipped to 101.2 from an upwardly revised 101.5 in March, originally reported as 101.2, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.“The USFIG ticked up in the first quarter of this year, but has begun to ease again. Thus, underlying inflation pressures remain rela...
Toronto
ECRI principals will be in Toronto to meet with professional members on April 30, 2012.
Australian Home Price Outlook
While prices in the Australian property market have, at times, surged to bubble-worthy levels in recent years, they have recently cooled off, igniting a flurry of worry over whether a crash in the housing market is imminent. ECRI’s latest report, based on its forward-looking Australian Leading Home Price Index, clarifies the cyclical direction of home prices in the months ahead.
WLI Growth Slips Again
A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose modestly last week, though the annualized growth rate pulled back to a four-week low, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 124.1 in the week ended April 20, from 123.8 the previous week. That was originally reported as 123.9. Th...
New Global Cyclical Shifts Taking Hold
While the mainstream accepts that there is concerted weakness in Europe, ECRI’s latest report presents evidence of new cyclical patterns arising with regard to specific sectors of global growth. Are we on the verge of a new leg of global cyclical weakness, or is there actually some underlying strength?
ECRI Insight: The Yo-Yo Years
The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, and because of the Bullwhip Effect, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.
WLI Drops
A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week, and the growth rate weakened on an annualized basis, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index dropped to 123.9 in the week ended April 13 from 125.9 the previous week.The index's annualized growth rate dropped to 1.2 percen...
Recovery vs. Recession
It has become a universal article of faith that U.S. economic growth is steadily improving. Naturally, any recession fears are now considered distant memories.In its latest reading, the Fed’s popular “stall speed” measure of Gross Domestic Income growth also rose above its 2% recession threshold, further boosting optimism about the U.S. recovery. However, is such an optimistic view warranted?E...
WLI Falls
A measure of future U.S. economic growth eased last week, though the annualized growth rate continued to improve, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged down to 125.7 in the week ended April 6 from 126.3 the previous week.That was originally reported as 126.5. The index's annua...
Presentation
On April 11 at 6:30 PM ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will give a private talk at the Cosmopolitan Club in New York.
WLI Rises
A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, as did the growth rate on an annualized basis, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 126.5 in the week ended March 30 from 125.8 the previous week.The index's annualized growth rate rose to 1.0 percent from 0.0 p...
Inflation Gauge Dips
U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in March, as the U.S. future inflation gauge remained at 101.2 from a revised 101.3 in February, originally reported as 101.4, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
Some Dreary Forecasts From Recovery Skeptics
Call them permabears. A solid six months of good and getting-better data — fewer Americans claiming unemployment benefits, rising industrial production and improving economic sentiment among them — have failed to convince them of the strength of the recovery.Some offer outright dire predictions. There is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based forecasting firm, which foresees a ...
Eurozone FIG Rises
Inflationary pressures in the euro zone edged up in February, pushed up by increases in Germany, Italy and Spain, according to an indicator designed to predict inflation trends.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge rose a touch to 97.3 in February from January's 21-month low of 96.7, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said on Friday.'Despite its latest uptick, the EZFIG is still in a clear cyc...
Can Chinese Industrial Growth Bounce Back?
ECRI has just updated its Chinese Leading Industrial Production Index . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in Chinese industrial growth. Given the current recessionary situation in much of Europe, many are looking to China as a potential investment haven. However, with recent data confirming continued weakness in Chinese industrial growth, t...
WLI Rises
A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, and the growth rate on an annualized basis was non-negative for the first time since August, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 125.9 from a revised 125.4 in the week ended March 23.The index's annualized grow...
Bahama Meetings
ECRI will visit the Bahamas to meet with professional clients on March 27 - 30, 2012.
Germany and the Eurozone Recession
Most observers believe that with the Eurozone financial crisis contained for now, dangers to the German economy have receded. In fact, with popular business and consumer surveys rising in recent months, it is widely expected that the German economy will accelerate in coming months, and recession is only a remote possibility.This confidence in the German economy is partly due to its strong reco...
Undertow in Credit Conditions?
Recent marginal interest rate increases have scarcely surprised the consensus – who take this tightening as a sign the U.S. economy is in a firming economic recovery. As such, many expect credit growth to improve further over the next year.But is such extrapolation warranted? After all, borrowers are sensitive to even modest changes in credit conditions. ECRI’s U.S. Leading Credit Index , whic...
WLI Ticks Up
A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week to hold a seven-month high, while the annualized growth rate also improved, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 125.7 in the week ended March 16 from a downwardly revised 125.0 the previous week. That was origina...
Will U.S. Job Growth Begin to Flag?
With U.S. payroll job growth averaging nearly a quarter of a million a month over the last three months, general optimism about the sustainability of the U.S. economic recovery has improved considerably. However, coming out of the Great Recession, shell-shocked employers continued to slash jobs for many more months than usual. Thus, part of the current growth in jobs can be attributed to emplo...
The Yo-Yo Years
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan shares his presentation slides and notes from the Bloomberg Sovereign Debt Conference today in Frankfurt, Germany.The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economi...
Frankfurt Conference
On March 22 at 9:00 AM ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join a panel discussion about the "Risks Beyond the Eurozone and the Threat of Contagion" during the Bloomberg Sovereign Debt Conference.
The Yo-Yo Years
The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.
WLI Rises
A measure of future U.S. economic growth improved last week to its highest level in seven months, while the annualized growth rate also rose, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 125.1 in the week ended March 9 from an upwardly revised 124.6 the previous week. That was origi...
Radio Interview
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will talk with Bloomberg Radio's Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt at 7:30 AM on Friday, March 16.
Why Our Recession Call Stands
Many have questioned why, in the face of improving economic data, ECRI has maintained its recession call. The straight answer is that the objective economic indicators we monitor, including those we make public, give us no other choice. Let’s start with the current state of the economy. A couple of weeks ago, we publicly highlighted ECRI’s U.S. Coincident Index . It’s important to understand th...
WLI Ticks Up
A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week to hold a more than six-month high, while the annualized growth rate also improved, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to its highest level since mid-August at 124.3 in the week ended March 2 from a downwardly revise...
Flat FIG
U.S. inflationary pressures were unchanged in February, as the U.S. future inflation gauge remained at 101.4 from a revised 101.4 in January, originally reported as 101.2, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.“With the USFIG staying well below its early 2011 highs, U.S. inflation pressures remain fairly subdued,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshm...
Euro Inflation Pressures Ease
Inflationary pressures in the euro zone eased to a 21-month low in January, according to an indicator designed to predict inflation trends.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge slipped a touch to 96.5 in January from 96.6 in December, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said on Friday."Falling further from its early 2011 high, the EZFIG declined to a 21-month low in its latest reading," Lakshma...
New Growth Rate Cycle Dates
We have recently determined growth rate cycle peak dates for France, Italy and Switzerland.You can download the complete international business and growth rate cycle chronologies from ECRI's cycle chronologies page.
WLI Rises
A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up to its highest level in six months last week, while the annualized growth rate also saw improvement, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 124.2 in the week ended Feb 24 from a downwardly revised 123.1 the previous week. Tha...
Cyclical Linkages in International Supply Chains
In the wake of the global financial crisis, concerns have grown about the passage of power from the Western economies to those in the East and the Global South, who currently account for the lion’s share of worldwide economic growth. However, much of the developing economies’ rapid ascent has been driven by exports, resulting in their significantly deeper integration into the global supply chai...
Q4 GDP Revision & Recession
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with CNNi following today's revision to 2011 Q4 GDP.
Interview on Recession
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will talk with CNN International about our U.S. recession call.

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